I wrote this essay recently as one of my term papers. The topic was to define various environmental problems currently facing the earth and what could be the nightmare scenario facing inter-state relationships caused by said problem in the short, medium and long term. Just for your info, Political West = Western Europe & America, Political East = Everyone else, Political North = The Developed World, Political South = The Undeveloped * Developing World.
The dictionary definition of the environment is that it is the surroundings or conditions in which a person, animal, or plant lives or operates. A state, or nation, on the other hand, is defined as an organised political community under one government tied to one or more geographical locations in the world. As the prosperity of each state, along the health and wealth of its peoples, are tied so intimately to the conditions of its own environment that it would be asinine to claim that they could be independent of it in how they relate to one another. The topic of this essay is to discuss the various environmental issues currently facing the world and how it will affect these relationships in the short, medium and long term. Prior to discussing these potential scenarios, it is important to recognise that our planets environment represents a complex web of interrelated systems, one affecting the other, in a delicate balance.
Dr William E. Rees of the University of British Columbia envisions the environment as broadly four interacting spheres namely the atmosphere, which is made up of the various gasses surrounding the planet, the actual rock, earth and minerals of the planet compose its lithosphere, the hydrosphere which is its bodies of water and finally the biosphere which is comprised of all the planets flora and fauna. Each sphere has further subsystems such as the pedosphere and anthroposphere, but cumulatively they make up the ecosphere, which is his preferred term for the environment. As shown in Figure 1, these spheres are interrelated, thus upsetting the balance in one could adversely affect the balance in one or more of the others. An example could be that of large quantities of poisonous gasses being released into the atmosphere, which changes its composition thus forcing animals within the biosphere into extinction if they are unable to adapt. This actually did happen three billion years ago when cynobacteria, or blue algae, evolved the ability to photosynthesise energy from sunlight.
The example given above shows that though the planet’s systems may be fragile, they are at the same time highly resilient and capable to adapt to any number of imbalances in one or more systems over time. However, humanity has evolved to suit the current state the ecosphere and any adverse changes to it would be greatly detrimental to its survival. The anthroposphere, humanity’s ecological footprint, is the part of the environment that is made or modified by humans for use in human activities and human habitats and has a powerful effect on the ecosphere in ways that scientists are only beginning to understand now. These effects can be seen across the board throughout the ecosphere and is beginning to turn back in on itself an effect the anthroposphere. It is on these issues and how it will affect international relations that this paper will be discussing.
As stated earlier, the atmosphere is the layer of gases that surrounds the Earth and is retained by gravity. A mix of mostly nitrogen, oxygen, without which advanced life would be impossible, water vapour and various other trace gasses, it protects life on Earth by absorbing ultraviolet solar radiation, warming the surface through heat retention, the greenhouse effect, and reducing temperature extremes between day and night all of which at the same time in combination with interactions with the oceans, creates for it a weather system that ensures the transportation of water, a necessity for life, throughout the planet’s surface in the form of rain, hail, snow and the like. As was shown in the blue algae example from the Archean extinction event given earlier, the atmosphere can be, and is, polluted by the release of various gasses into it. In nature, volcanoes, bovine flatulence and methane traps could cause this. However, since the industrial revolution, man has exacerbated the problem through primarily the burning of fossil fuels and industry.
Air pollution from industry does causes the immediate problem of smog, which in turn increases the occurrence of respiratory illnesses but it may also cause a more long term problem to arise, climate change. Green house gasses such as carbon dioxide and methane are produced as a by-product of burning fossil fuels. In weather models, it has been shown that excessive amounts of these gasses in our atmosphere could accelerate the green house effect and raise global temperatures, which in turn would alter the current climate patterns.
Raised average temperatures and erratic weather patterns would have the knock on effect of disturbing crop-growing cycles through extended droughts and inconsistent, shorter rainy seasons which of course would reduce crop yields. Furthermore, increased global temperatures would hasten the desertification process which would lessen the amount of arable land thus increase the likelihood of famine. Aside from that, it may also increase the spread of disease as diseases carrying vectors, such as the anopheles mosquito, which is a vector for malaria, move into latitudes that prior to this were too cold. If left unchecked, some models have shown that global temperatures would rise as high as 8°c by the end of the 21st century.
Such an increase would have the added threat of melting the ice caps and glaciers, which in turn could raise sea levels as high as two feet, which would swamp coastal cities and low lying countries displacing their inhabitants and forcing them to migrate inland. Also, the additional fresh water from the ice caps and glaciers would decrease the salinity of the oceans via dilution thus increasing the likelihood of fish stock collapse and extinction of marine life unable to adapt to lower salt levels in the water. This already shows a link between the atmosphere and the hydrosphere, where problems effecting one dominoes into further problems effecting the entire ecosphere.
Farm and industrial runoff further degrades the hydrosphere and affects marine life further by polluting the rivers that feed into the ocean thus acidifying it. This is a process that is already happening, as is evident by the bleaching of the Great Barrier Reef in Australia. Vast areas of the ocean are technically dead due to pollution as it kills off plankton, an important food source to many marine animals, most notable of which would be whales. Adding further pressure to dwindling fish stocks would the threat of over-fishing as more and more fishermen attempt to catch less and less fish. The same pollution from farm and industrial runoff also pollutes ground water; a disappearing resource as more and more is pumped out from the water table and aquifers for farming and domestic use. This has led to severe water shortages throughout the world, an example of which as reported by UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs, would be in Afghanistan where seventy percent of its population is dependent on water sourced from wells but due to recurrent droughts, low precipitation and poor water management, the water table as fallen by four to ten meters thus exacerbating its water crisis. Another example would be the Ogallala Aquifer in the Great Plains region of the United States. The aquifer yields roughly thirty percent of the nation’s water, however due to over consumption and lack of replenishment, some estimates describe that the aquifer will be drained within twenty years at its current rate of use.
Natural resource deterioration, such as is the case water, is a clear and evident threat. As most resources finite, unless the resource is recyclable ore easily replenished, by default it will be exhausted. A good example would be petroleum; it is a limited resource that took millions of years to create. As it cannot be synthesized and there is no viable replacement as of yet. At the current rate of consumption, according to a report made by USA Today in 2004, the resource will be fully depleted in forty years barring increased usage or further discovery of new oil fields. As oil is the primary source of energy for, the threat of depletion of current reserves has caused many nations to prospect for new oil fields, which represents one of the causes for yet another environmental issue, soil degradation.
The lithosphere makes up the body of our ecosphere, the rock, the metals, the soil and its minerals. Excessive mining throughout the world has caused severe soil degradation due to runoff from mining operations; heavy metals such as lead and mercury have poisoned potentially arable land leaving it useless for agriculture. The same metals too have found its way into our food chain, an example would be fish contaminated with mercury in the water or plants grown in lead contaminated soil. This contamination serves to reduce the global food supply and along with other factors such as low crop yields may lead famine.
Aside from the direct effects of mining and the pollution, soil degradation is also caused exhaustion whereby agriculture is practiced without adequate soil management. Crops grown aren’t rotated to ensure that the nutrients in the soil get to be replenished. This could be due to preference to single cash crop or simply ignorance of the practice. Within a few years the soil becomes barren and unusable. To overcome this problem some farmers may use fertilizers to attempt to revitalize the soil or load the soil with nitrogen. The result of this practice exacerbates the problem of water pollution as this represents the agricultural runoff mentioned earlier in the essay.
Nitrogen loading can cause rivers to become anoxic, or lack oxygen, due to blooms algae fertilized by the runoff, this in turn kill of river life or drive them away. Aside from fertilizers, some farmers practice slash and burn farming in order to rejuvenate the soil. This method is highly destructive to animal life, adds excess carbon into the atmosphere via smoke and increases the likelihood of soil erosion as land is left bare. Such methods, along with deforestation, help to encourage desertification. In fact desertification and deforestation grow at almost the same rate. An example of which can be seen in the Gobi desert where between the years of 1994 and 1999, it grew by 52,400 square kilometres due primarily to deforestation and over grazing.
The net effect of these stresses placed upon atmosphere, lithosphere and hydrosphere is that it amplifies into the biosphere, thus entire species, plant and animal, begin to go extinct at an alarming rate. Extinction is a fact of nature, it is estimated that over ninety nine percent of every species that’s ever existed is now extinct. However, Professor Norman Myers of the American Institute of Biological Sciences predicts that over five million species which represent half of the total estimated number of species on the planet today, may go extinct by the turn of the century, making this the largest extinction event for the last sixty five million years. It is almost impossible to guess what the result of such a mass extinction along with all the interrelated factors reverberating throughout the ecosphere would have on the anthroposphere and how this would affect the relationship between member states.
The immediate to short-term socio-economic impacts can be seen now, with water shortages apparent in Darfur causing intra-state low level fighting over resources. Due to soil infertility and desertification, displaced farmers are beginning to migrate to the cities in some parts of the Middle East. This is already beginning cause some degree of tension between the states there. This is also happening throughout the world as political South begins to migrate to the North. This influx of migrants along with their potential security risks has already begun to cause the Developed World to tighten its borders, it can be said that in the next five years this problem will simply escalate.
Within the next five to twenty years, if conditions are not improved and steps to drastically reduce greenhouse gas emissions are taken it can be said tat global temperatures may rise by at least 2°C to 3°C which would start to cause the ice caps to melt and the lower lying cities will begin to experience a greater degree of storms and flooding displacing millions. The increased temperature will also cause harsher, longer droughts in the world’s food belt. This along with failing fish stocks increase the likelihood of more severe food shortages, which would most likely lead to civil unrest as it did at the beginning of the century but to a greater degree. This unrest could translate into interstate more fighting in the political South as it may cause more border disputes people move to inhabit the remaining arable land. The more developed North on the other hand could actually benefit in the short term, as warmer weather will increase their planting time and warmer weather would increase the diversity crops grown. However, this could cause a deeper rift between the North and South thus increase the likelihood of terrorism in the Developed World. Also, diseases such as dengue fever and malaria will be come a more common threat as the vectors of those diseases migrate to the previous colder latitudes.
By 2030, the nightmare scenario would be that temperatures would have raised the global average by 5°C. This could cause sea levels to rise by over a foot. As this would mean the end of many island nations and most low-lying cities along with the mass migrations that it would entail, the political map would most likely have to be redrawn. Some analysts have even gone as far to predict the return to barbarity to at least half of mankind, and this may just be the case. There could be severe food shortages as crops fail year on year due to weather conditions and desertification. By this time even the more developed nations may even begin to fight amongst themselves and several could even end up becoming failed states as they succumb to severe resource shortages especially if no substitute for oil is found, as that would compound the problem by adding an energy crisis into the mix.
In conclusion, even though this essay paints a rather grim scene based on a nightmare scenario this does not have to be the case. Some analysts may say that it is too late to stop climate change and that the ecosphere is already in too much turmoil to resolve, it does not mean that states should make the mistake of not doing anything. States should first work together to reduce carbon emissions, then set up a standard for all states to follow regarding the treatment of the environment as a whole and to manage resources at hand more efficiently. Furthermore, states should try to reduce their ecological footprint as much as possible by increasing their efficiencies in utilising the remaining resources to higher degree. Most importantly however, is that a new cheap non-fossil fuel energy source has to be developed to replace oil, or at the very least a substitute has to be found that does not impact the ecosphere as much oil does. Examples of which could be hydrogen or even returning nuclear energy.
Sources
Wackernagel, M. and W. Rees. (1996). Our Ecological Footprint: Reducing Human Impact on the Earth. New Society Publishers.
Gismondi, M. (2000). Interview of Dr. William Rees. Aurora Online (http://aurora.icaap.org/index.php/aurora/article/view/18/29).
Christakis, N. The Anthroposphere. Essay, The Edge World Question Centre, The Edge Foundation (http://www.edge.org/q2009/q09_8.html)
Brand, S. (2009). Whole Earth Discipline: An Ecopragmatist Manifesto. Viking Books
IPCC (2007-05-04). Summary for Policymakers: Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.
Cole, N. September 24, 2006. Shrinking aquifer looms as big problem for farms, Arkansas Democrat-Gazette.
Myers N. and Knoll A. May 2001 "How Will the Sixth Extinction Affect the Evolution of Species?", American Institute of Biological Sciences
(2009) Ecosystems and Human Wellbeing: Biodiversity Synthesis, Millenium Ecosystem Assessment, United Nations
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